If Tom Brady was a stock, would he be sitting in your portfolio right now? [Read more…] about MAP: Put Tom Brady in your portfolio
We have been light on the mic recently with updates. That’s simply a function of there not being much to alert you to. No news is good news, right?! However, something did occur in the data yesterday that we want to bring to your attention. [Read more…] about MAP: UPDATE – Potential Bullish move ahead (8/16/2018)
Our MAP ratio for the U.S. market triggered an overbought signal. Looking back at history, these signals have preceded large drops in the market.
Basically, institutional buying is too high and unsustainable. We expect the market could be primed for a pullback, or the velocity of the recent rally could slow. We are long-term bullish on the market and feel any meaningful pullbacks should be used as a buying opportunity.A couple points of reference:
- The average 5-week return for IWM post the signal is -1.25%.
- The last time this signal triggered was 2/21/2017 and IWM returned -4.52% four weeks later.
Today’s results showed the first sign of more unusual institutional buying versus selling since Thursday February 1st. Additionally, we are noticing selling signals as slowing.
Looking ahead, we feel the eye of the storm has passed and most likely the lows made on Friday were the retest (ie near-term lows). Looking at the data today, based on history we are heading higher.