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Duck Test Market

January 7, 2020 //  by Lucas Downey

The duck test goes like this – “if it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck.”

Based on the duck test, our data says markets are overbought and due for a healthy pullback.

Mapsignals Performs A Duck Test Market

From Wikipedia, “If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck..”

duck test market

Investors seem to be greedy. That’s usually not the time to be buying stocks. Let’s perform the 3 part duck test to see if markets are overbought.

ETF Buying is Huge Right Now

We measure ETFs and look for big buying and selling. Recently, buying surged.

We’ve seen this before – it tends to preface lower market prices. Last time it happened was mid January of 2018. Just before a pullback.

It looks like a duck.

The Big Money Index is Overbought

We measure thousands of stocks each day looking for big money buying and selling. Recently, we broke into the red area…ie overbought.

That just means that buying is extreme compared to selling.

When the index begins to fall from the red area, markets fall.

Here is the Big Money Index.

It swims like a duck.

You can see the average returns after we reach these red areas. Out to 7 weeks is lackluster.

Keep in mind these periods are after 2012…an incredibly bullish 7+ years.

Buying In Stocks Was Off The Charts

Weeks ago there was a shock wave of buying in stocks.

It’s a rare event when all sectors see massive buying. In yellow below, you can see the % of the universe showing big volume buys.

Usually you see this type of out-sized activity when the market has a flush out…ie bottoms. It’s a cry of “uncle.”

It quacks like a duck.

Bottom line: we’ve seen signals like this before. Signs point to a healthy pullback. We’ll be getting our buy lists ready.

Lucas Downey
Lucas Downey

Lucas is co-founder of MAPsignals. His full bio can be found here.
Prior to MAP, he was Head of ETF Sales at Cantor Fitzgerald & SVP of Derivatives at Jefferies, LLC.

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Category: All, Big Money Insights Weekly, Special Reports

Previous Post: «most frequent 20 january 2020 Top 20 Stocks From 2nd Half 2019
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“Most people get interested in #stocks when everyone else is. The time to get interested is when no one else is. You can't buy what is popular and do well.”
- #WarrenBuffett

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Investors are fearful. These are the best ETFs to buy now for June 2022. Our latest blog post is here: https://mapsignals.com/map-blog/

At MAPsignals, we turn to data to help us find opportunities. Scoring stocks is what we love to do. Scoring baskets of stocks allows us to score ETFs! 

Having an unemotional data-driven approach allows us to highlight funds rising to the top. This process is how we find the best ETFs for June 2022. 

From our standpoint, the best ETFs are ones that hold incredible stocks. 

We are seeing strong technical and fundamental scores in Utilities, Food & Beverage, Staples, and Energy ETFs.

Jason Bodner breaks down the following 5 Best Defensive ETFs to Buy Now:
2:46 iShares U.S. Energy ETF (IYE)
4:39 First Trust Natural Gas ETF (FCG)
6:21 First Trust Nasdaq Food & Beverage ETF (FTXG)
8:37 First Trust Utilities AlphaDEX Fund (FXU)
10:20 Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP)

Inside each of these ETFs are outlier stocks. Those are companies that outperform all others. Data and helps us find them!

In IYE, he breaks down high scoring stock, Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY)
Inside FCG, Jason showcases Coterra Energy Inc. (CTRA)
Then for FTXG, he finds Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM)
For FXU, he focuses on NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG)
Finally for XLP, he showcases Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST)

Learn more at www.mapsignals.com
Remember this is not personal investment advice of any kind. This video is for entertainment purposes only. 

Our disclaimer can be found here: https://mapsignals.com/contact/

Disclosure: Jason holds long positions in COST in managed accounts at the time of filming.

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Best ETFs to Buy Now for June 2022 | ETF Database
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