• Menu
  • Skip to right header navigation
  • Skip to main content
  • Skip to primary sidebar
  • Skip to footer

MAPsignals

We map big money.

  • Latest Insights
  • Power of MAP
    • MAP Products
    • MAP System
    • White Papers
    • Videos & Interviews
  • Profit with MAP
  • About
    • About MAP
    • MAP Team
    • Authors
    • MAP System
    • MAP Products
    • Big Money Index
  • Members
    • Get Started With MAP
    • My MAP
    • Big Money Charts
    • MAP View
    • MAP View Options
    • MAP Top 20 Weekly
    • MAP 50
    • Member Updates
    • Platinum Updates
    • Members Only Posts
    • Performance
  • Portal
  • Latest Insights
  • Power of MAP
    • MAP Products
    • MAP System
    • White Papers
    • Videos & Interviews
  • Profit with MAP
  • About
    • About MAP
    • MAP Team
    • Authors
    • MAP System
    • MAP Products
    • Big Money Index
  • Members
    • Get Started With MAP
    • My MAP
    • Big Money Charts
    • MAP View
    • MAP View Options
    • MAP Top 20 Weekly
    • MAP 50
    • Member Updates
    • Platinum Updates
    • Members Only Posts
    • Performance
  • Portal

Quiet Chop

October 22, 2020 //  by Lucas Downey//  2 Comments

Stocks started off October with a bang. Now, it’s quiet chop.

September saw the S&P 500 fall 9.6% peak to trough with a low set September 23rd. This played out precisely how history has suggested based especially on election years since 1992.

Big money sells ahead of uncertain events like presidential elections. Then they tend to buy after election day.  But buyers seemed to show up early this year and from the 9/23 low the S&P 500 rallied +9.2% effectively wiping out any destruction saw prior.

But since October 12th, things have quieted down. The data has seemed mixed with no clear buying or selling… just pockets of both in little corners of the market. It’s almost like stocks are tip-toeing into the election.

Sure, we can assign reasons, there always are reasons. Maybe people are focused on tonight’s debate, maybe it’s earnings uncertainty, stimulus, or coronavirus. Whatever the reason is, we’d describe it as quiet chop.

Now that the election is less than 2 weeks away, we see new scandalous headlines dropping daily. Big green market days are followed by red days, seemingly over and over. It’s like the stock market went into a big washing machine with money sloshing around: no clear consensus.

At MAPsignals, we don’t follow the news, we follow the Big Money. So it’s time to dig under the surface, and the signals we see are self-contradicting whispers.

Despite buyers coming in early after our expected big money selling, it looks like uncertainty is back. As we see it, big money chips are being taken off the table. As money managers flatten out risk, stocks are whipping around under the surface. The main indexes may look calm, but volatility is brewing under the surface.

QUIET CHOP

Big Money Index Quiet Chop

In terms of big money action, it’s quiet out there any way you slice it. The big rally kicking off October has ground to a halt as the S&P 500 has fallen -3% since 10/12. Volumes and (logically) signal counts are drying up.

This reinforces our belief that Wall Street money-managers and traders are flattening out their risk. You can see the quiet chop in the BMI:

big money index quiet chop

The precipitous fall from the overbought peak in July has been smooth and steady. The drop accelerated in September as the first round of risk-off took place. Buyers came in- perhaps to cover shorts, perhaps in a bid of over-confidence, but either way optimism surfaced for a few weeks.

Now our data points to near-term uncertainty. More importantly, it fascinatingly once again lines up with the selling in stocks we’ve monitored in our election study going back to 1990.

Now that history is playing out as we thought, what action do we take?

Remember, history suggests that the yellow BMI line tends rise after the election day, indicating an inrushing of big money. While we can’t know for sure until the day has passed, what we can say is this: if you have your eye stocks that may have ran away from you, create a buy list with some price targets in case those sellers do show up again.

With stock signals and volumes drying up, another indicator is reflecting the same…

ETF Activity Is Quiet

When stocks are quiet, ETFs usually are too.

Here you can clearly see ETF buyers dried up:

etf activity is quiet

The only real ETF activity we are seeing are ETF bond sellers. Several fixed-income ETFs are breaking down on decent volumes. That is likely just part of the quiet chop as election uncertainty often means a reduction of risk across the board.

Sometimes markets are clearly bulling. Other times they are clearly bearish. But in less convicted times like these we should get our buy lists ready. Should lower prices come, they are good things for long-term investors. Being prepared is key. Opportunity can strike at any moment.

The Bottom line is this – Volatility is here but it’s hiding under the cool exterior of the appearance of muted indexes. We have plenty of reasons to cause reluctance to slap on risk.

Not only are election jitters causing anxiety, but there’s the unknown of a new stimulus package, coronavirus cases are on the rise, and on top of it all- earnings season is here. Earnings is always a tricky time but because we track outlier stocks, most of our companies are doing well.

Big MAP stocks like ALGN might feel like one of the ones that got away as they make new highs. We talked about how to handle frustrating situations like that on our podcast from yesterday. If you missed it check it out.

But the short answer is, new outliers come along all the time. That’s the beauty of the MAPsignals process.  With patience, you’ll get the opportunity to own one that won’t get away. It may come in the next few weeks. It may not.

Either way, be prepared because if pre-election uncertainty gives us a chance, we will be shopping for outlier deals.

Above all- remember to vote!

Lucas Downey
Lucas Downey

Lucas is co-founder of MAPsignals. His full bio can be found here.
Prior to MAP, he was Head of ETF Sales at Cantor Fitzgerald & SVP of Derivatives at Jefferies, LLC.

Spread the word!

Category: All, Big Money Insights Weekly

Previous Post: « The Ones That Got Away
Next Post: How To Find Outlier Stocks Early »

Reader Interactions

Comments

  1. Van

    October 22, 2020 at 1:11 pm

    Couldn’t agree more. We’re sandwiched between a rock and hard place.

    Reply
    • MAPsignals Staff

      October 23, 2020 at 8:20 am

      We will get through it…it’s just noise in our opinion.

      Reply

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Primary Sidebar

Get Big Money Insights for FREE

Want to know where the Big Money is headed?

Just enter your email address below. You'll get our FREE NEWSLETTER sent directly to your inbox.

We call it Big Money Insights... It’s your weekly sneak peek at the powerful market-moving forces that are hidden from 99% of investors.

"*" indicates required fields

This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.

Categories

  • All
  • Big Money Insights Weekly
  • Big Money Series
  • Macro Insights
  • MAP In The Media
  • Members Only
  • Performance
  • Podcast
  • Special Reports
  • Stocks
  • Videos & Interviews
  • White Papers

Archives

  • May 2022
  • April 2022
  • March 2022
  • February 2022
  • January 2022
  • December 2021
  • November 2021
  • October 2021
  • September 2021
  • August 2021
  • July 2021
  • June 2021
  • May 2021
  • April 2021
  • March 2021
  • February 2021
  • January 2021
  • December 2020
  • November 2020
  • October 2020
  • September 2020
  • August 2020
  • July 2020
  • June 2020
  • May 2020
  • April 2020
  • March 2020
  • February 2020
  • January 2020
  • December 2019
  • November 2019
  • October 2019
  • September 2019
  • August 2019
  • July 2019
  • June 2019
  • May 2019
  • April 2019
  • March 2019
  • February 2019
  • January 2019
  • December 2018
  • November 2018
  • October 2018
  • September 2018
  • August 2018

Follow us on Twitter

MAPsignals Follow 573 808

MAPsignals - we map the markets.

mapsignals
mapsignals avatar; MAPsignals @mapsignals ·
15h 1528792004649418754

“Most people get interested in #stocks when everyone else is. The time to get interested is when no one else is. You can't buy what is popular and do well.”
- #WarrenBuffett

Image for the Tweet beginning: “Most people get interested in Twitter feed image.
Reply on Twitter 1528792004649418754 Retweet on Twitter 1528792004649418754 1 Like on Twitter 1528792004649418754 2 Twitter 1528792004649418754
Load More...

Subscribe To Our YouTube Channel

MAPsignals

MAPsignals
#BestETFs #JasonBodner #ETFs
Investors are fearful. These are the best ETFs to buy now for June 2022. Our latest blog post is here: https://mapsignals.com/map-blog/

At MAPsignals, we turn to data to help us find opportunities. Scoring stocks is what we love to do. Scoring baskets of stocks allows us to score ETFs! 

Having an unemotional data-driven approach allows us to highlight funds rising to the top. This process is how we find the best ETFs for June 2022. 

From our standpoint, the best ETFs are ones that hold incredible stocks. 

We are seeing strong technical and fundamental scores in Utilities, Food & Beverage, Staples, and Energy ETFs.

Jason Bodner breaks down the following 5 Best Defensive ETFs to Buy Now:
2:46 iShares U.S. Energy ETF (IYE)
4:39 First Trust Natural Gas ETF (FCG)
6:21 First Trust Nasdaq Food & Beverage ETF (FTXG)
8:37 First Trust Utilities AlphaDEX Fund (FXU)
10:20 Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP)

Inside each of these ETFs are outlier stocks. Those are companies that outperform all others. Data and helps us find them!

In IYE, he breaks down high scoring stock, Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY)
Inside FCG, Jason showcases Coterra Energy Inc. (CTRA)
Then for FTXG, he finds Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM)
For FXU, he focuses on NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG)
Finally for XLP, he showcases Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST)

Learn more at www.mapsignals.com
Remember this is not personal investment advice of any kind. This video is for entertainment purposes only. 

Our disclaimer can be found here: https://mapsignals.com/contact/

Disclosure: Jason holds long positions in COST in managed accounts at the time of filming.

Music by 5ilverfox:
https://open.spotify.com/artist/0UsYrSmSKlcFnvY6XAUOQp
https://soundcloud.com/5ilverfox
Best ETFs to Buy Now for June 2022 | ETF Database
YouTube Video UC4nueJix0bSLmZyilUuCVrQ_Ew7oNsoKzGM
Load More... Subscribe

Footer

© 2021 Mapsignals.com

  • Home
  • Contact & Disclaimer
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms & Conditions
  • Cookie Policy (US)
  • FAQ

Copyright © 2022 · Mai Law Pro on Genesis Framework · WordPress · Log in

✕
The Big Money Index White Paper is Here

Get your copy here and know where the Big Money is headed.

Enter your email address below and you'll get our FREE NEWSLETTER sent directly to your inbox. 

 We call it Big Money Insights... It’s your weekly sneak peek at the powerful market-moving forces that are hidden from 99% of investors.

Manage Cookie Consent
We use cookies to optimize our website and our service.
Functional Always active
The technical storage or access is strictly necessary for the legitimate purpose of enabling the use of a specific service explicitly requested by the subscriber or user, or for the sole purpose of carrying out the transmission of a communication over an electronic communications network.
Preferences
The technical storage or access is necessary for the legitimate purpose of storing preferences that are not requested by the subscriber or user.
Statistics
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for statistical purposes. The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for anonymous statistical purposes. Without a subpoena, voluntary compliance on the part of your Internet Service Provider, or additional records from a third party, information stored or retrieved for this purpose alone cannot usually be used to identify you.
Marketing
The technical storage or access is required to create user profiles to send advertising, or to track the user on a website or across several websites for similar marketing purposes.
Manage options Manage services Manage vendors Read more about these purposes
View preferences
{title} {title} {title}