Harvest Moon

The harvest moon is the final full moon before the season changes.

It’s the point where the moon is the closest to the Earth – making it appear big and bright.

We had one last week on October 1^st. I went outside with the family and pulled up a chair. The glow allowed for great vision. I was imagining the harvests from years past, when such a night made gathering crops that much easier.

You can bet that farmers from centuries ago would plan for these events. Knowledge was passed down from generation to generation about what’s coming next…a new season of change.

Stocks also have periodic shifts. At MAPsignals, our data can signal changes and pivots. And while some shifts in our data can be hugely epic like a harvest moon (like in March), there are other times when subtle indicators predict a new stock market attitude.

That’s what’s been happening recently.

The Big Money looks to be changing seasons.

Big Money Index Prepares For North

Over the past week and a half, our data has indicated a slowing of selling. Last week we pointed out how Big Money selling was slowing in our post, Evergreen Trees. When sellers become fewer, the buyers can show up.

I’ll get to that in the next section, but first let’s see where the Big Money Index stands:

Off to the right you can see that the index is flatlining. Buyers are slowly overpowering sellers. When that happens, the BMI rises. And that paints a picture of higher prices ahead for markets.

But what other clues do we see that support a changing tide for stocks?

Big Money Buyers Grab Stocks During Harvest Moon

Rarely is a trend made or changed in a day. Usually it’s a process.

It goes like this: Supply overwhelms demand, then supply slows, then demand takes over. Once demand is in charge, look out above! Here’s a visual:

But check out the daily Big Money Stock Signals. This morning showed juicy buyers.

Green bars mean buyers won the day and red means sellers did:

Let’s go ahead and zoom in on the right. The green is fresh money ripping stocks higher. It’s also known as juice.

The red bars didn’t last long…those were the weak hands from 3 weeks ago.

The red bars are the Tech wreck that most people will forget in the coming weeks. We believed most of that “noise” was from day-traders learning the ropes…ie getting margin calls. Dip buyers came and saved the day.

Looking at it from this angle, it’s suggesting a changing season…maybe it’s the harvest moon signal. We delve into this recent data shift in our podcast from Tuesday.

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So, where do we go from here?

Signals are saying that stocks are getting bought up. And that’s all we need to know from a data standpoint. Negative news is shrugged off within 2 days in this market. That’s telling us that great stocks are the place to be.

MAPsignals finds the great ones.

The bottom line is this: an election year tends to bring a lot of volatility. The last few weeks are proof of that. We’ve been saying to not get too bearish…buy the dip is alive and well.

Market headlines can leave investors scratching their head. We suggest you don’t do that.

What goes on under the surface of the market oftentimes shines through all of that cloudiness.

JUST A HEADS UP – we received a lot of great feedback on the podcast from yesterday. We will be answering many of those questions in a future episode.

Don’t be shy – leave us a comment or reach out with thoughts you may have.

Lucas Downey

Lucas is co-founder of MAPsignals. His full bio can be found here.
Prior to MAP, he was Head of ETF Sales at Cantor Fitzgerald & SVP of Derivatives at Jefferies, LLC.