Holiday Cheer Not Fear
It’s the day before Thanksgiving. Odds are, you’re planning for the big feast tomorrow.
Most people aren’t focused on markets. Their aim is holiday cheer not fear.
And that’s what it should be, right? Holiday gatherings offer us a time to reflect and think. They’re one of the rare events that bring us all together…hopefully smiling.
And when it comes to Thanksgiving, my favorite part of the day is the table conversation. You know, when the patriarch or matriarch asks that question, “What are you thankful for this year?”
And one by one each person sounds off…with holiday cheer of some sort. These chats are always great because you never know what someone’ll say.
In these kodak moments, personalities cringe or shine.
And when it comes to stocks and markets right now, sectors are behaving like family members…each with their own traits. Love them or hate them, they’re important and deserve our attention.
Some deserve holiday cheer not fear.
Today I’ll give them their opportunity to tell their story. But first we’ll do a data dive.
Here we go.
Big Money Index Shows More Rotations
Normally, Thanksgiving week has the bulls running out the gate. This year is different: The Big Money Index has been falling fast the last few days. The rotational tug-of-war continues under the surface.
Looking at the S&P 500 alone doesn’t tell the whole story since it’s practically at all-time highs.
But, there’s real carnage under the surface. Below I’ve circled what’s meaningful – stocks have been under pressure, causing a swift pullback in the BMI:
In fact, Monday was the largest sell day in 2 months. These daily buys and sells are what drives the BMI:
This Thanksgiving week has a lot going on under the surface. ETFs saw chunky selling yesterday, too:
This is the top-level setup. Let’s now dive deeper to see what’s causing all this near-term pressure.
Some areas are setting up for holiday cheer not fear.
Sectors Offer Holiday Cheer Not Fear
Since it’s Thanksgiving, let’s go around the sector table.
A few areas of the market are responsible for those big red signals in our data. And if you are new to the MAPsignals system, big selling often means opportunity. (Check out this post about how to buy the dip.)
That’s because buying great stocks on pullbacks is like getting a Black Friday deal. Who doesn’t like that?! Selloffs for long-term investors offer holiday cheer not fear.
Below are 3 grumpy sectors causing the market turmoil. The first pain point is Technology. Believe it or not, Monday had the largest single day of selling in 8 months:
Look at that! Off to the right you can see the big red stick…I’ve also outlined the last time we saw selling of this magnitude, back on March 8th. A month later XLK was up a juicy 11.83%!
The tech sector reminds me of that family member that always sees the glass half empty. I say, be happy! Pullbacks offer holiday cheer not fear.
Now let’s look at Healthcare. Yesterday and Monday saw the most selling in 6 months:
For good measure, I outlined this weeks’ selling. And you can see the last 2 times we saw similar back in March & May. That was a great time to go shopping because the 1-month performance of XLV after March 8th was 3.84%.
Healthcare is acting like the grumpy uncle at Thanksgiving. He doesn’t see the positives, only the negatives.
Finally, there’s the Discretionary sector. Selling is big, but not epic:
Consumer and Retail has been a volatile space this year in terms of data. It’s kind of like that cousin that we can’t seem to keep track of…their story just keeps changing.
But look how big selling often signals the low for the group. The last time we saw this much selling was October 4th. A month later XLY was +17.03%.
Ladies and gentlemen, this data brings holiday cheer not fear.
Let’s wrap this up.
Here’s the bottom line: At MAPsignals we wish you and your family all the best. Few are probably reading this because the focus is where it needs to be: family.
Once you get back to reality next week, look over the data. Subscribers, pay attention to when selling begins to slow.
Now, it’s time for me to rotate the lazy Susan and grab a slice of turducken.
Happy Thanksgiving everyone!
***And as a bonus, one of our subscribers sent us this video…yeah, they’re thankful for MAPsignals! And we’re thankful for you guys, too!
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